A new open-access paper entitled “Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model” by Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ardenghi, Luca Dede and Alfio Quarteroni has been published in the international journal Infectious Disease Modelling.
The paper proposes an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the COVID-19 spreading in Italy, accounting for the vaccination campaign and the presence of new variants when they become dominant. In particular, the specific features of the variants (e.g. their increased transmission rate) and vaccines (e.g. their efficacy to prevent transmission, hospitalization and death) are modeled, based on clinical evidence. The new model is validated comparing its near-future forecast capabilities with other epidemiological models and exploring different scenario analyses.