Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: an application to the Italian scenario.

77/2022

Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: an application to the Italian scenario.

Monday 31st October 2022

Ziarelli, G.; Dede', L.; Parolini, N.; Verani, M.; Quarteroni, A.

In the context of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, mathematical modelling has played a fundamental role for making forecasts, simulating scenarios and evaluating the impact of preventive political, social and pharmaceutical measures. Optimal control theory can be a useful tool based on solid mathematical bases to plan the vaccination campaign in the direction of eradicating the pandemic as fast as possible. The aim of this work is to explore the optimal prioritisation order for planning vaccination campaigns able to achieve specific goals, as the reduction of the amount of infected, deceased and hospitalized in a fixed time frame, among age classes. For this purpose, we introduce an age stratified SIR-like epidemic compartmental model settled in an abstract framework for modelling two-doses vaccination campaigns and conceived with the description of COVID19 disease. Overall, we formalize an optimal control framework adopting the model as state problem by acting on the administrations of vaccine-doses. An extensive campaign of numerical tests, featured in the Italian scenario and calibrated on available data from Dipartimento di Protezione Civile Italiana, shows that the presented framework can be a valuable tool to support the planning of vaccination campaigns minimizing specific goals.

This report, or a modified version of it, has been also submitted to, or published on
Infectious Disease Modelling