Uncertainties in renewable energy generation systems: functional data analysis, monte carlo simulation, and fuzzy interval analysis
Friday 28th November 2014
Ferrario, E.; Pini, A.
In this paper, aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in energy generation systems are investigated. The former are described by probability distributions, whereas the latter by possibility distributions. In particular, time-varying probability distributions elicited by Functional Data Analysis are considered for the representation of the aleatory uncertainty that evolves with time. Then, the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is performed by Monte Carlo simulation and Fuzzy Interval Analysis. The method is applied to a model of an energy system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and the loads. As a quantitative indicator of the analysis we evaluate the Expected Energy Not Supplied.