Analysing transportation system reliability: the case study of the metro system of Milan
Thursday 16th December 2021
Torti, A.; Galvani, M.; Urbano, V.; Arena, M.; Azzone, G.; Secchi, P.; Vantini, S.
This paper introduces a methodology to monitor the passenger flow in a subway transport system and analyse the system reliability under different offer and demand scenarios. Motivated by a collaboration with ATM - the company responsible for the management of the public transport in Milan - we focus on the subway system of Milan with the aim of helping operation managers to handle the daily access of travellers to the train stations during Covid-19 pandemic. In details, we first apply a calibration procedure to estimate a reliable OD matrices; then, a model able to monitor the passenger flow by estimating, for each train, the number of passengers getting on and off at each station, along with the load factor of the train along the line. Results highlight the subway sections and the stations most at risk of congestion under different offer and demand scenarios; moreover, eventual queues at each station are estimated. The proposed approach develops a flexible and scalable method to analyse and monitor any urban railway system in any city.