The Società Italiana di Statistica (SIS) has awarded a Special Mention of Merit in the 2026 edition of the Premio per la migliore tesi di laurea magistrale in Statistica Metodologica in ricordo del professore Oliviero Lessi to Alice Flamigni‘s master’s thesis, Multi-state and Cure Models for Personalized Optimal Timing in HSCT in Patients Affected by CMML.
The Special Mention of Merit was communicated by the SIS General Secretary with the following motivation:
“This work focuses on the crucial role of treatment timing in patients with Hematopoietic Stem-Cell Transplantation, the only curative option for Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia. Using multi-state models, cure models and microsimulation, we identified the optimal HSCT timing for each patient profile and quantified its curative potential. The model selection procedure, which represents the biggest original contribution of the thesis, has been performed by relying on an innovative goodness-of-fit index, the Adapted Brier Score, which captures the efficacy of a multi-state model by comparing the estimated transition probability with the empirical one.
This work is highly clinically relevant because, through microsimulation techniques, it provides an alternative to randomized trials that are ethically debatable and practically constrained. Moreover, our approach can be easily extended, representing a non-invasive method useful for defining the optimal timing of general one-time treatments.”
Congratulations to Alice on this well-deserved achievement!.
